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CLASS 6A · District 4-6A

Keller Timber Creek Falcons

Enrollment: 2,887 · Dist. Enr. Rk · 4
Rank
#122
was #144
Record
3-3
2-1 district
Elo
1510
#122 of 249
OVR Grade
76.8
#122 of 249 in 6A
OFF Grade
74.3
#131 of 249 in 6A
DEF Grade
72.7
#148 of 249 in 6A
Perf
1408
#138 of 249 in 6A

Schedule & Results

Wk Opponent (Rec) Elo Proj WP% Result Perf AOS ADS WQ LQ
1
@South Grand Prairie (4-2) 1730
 20% (-14) W 27-25 1677 +3.8 −3.3 +0.46 —
2
Flower Mound (5-1) 1720
 58% (+3) L 0-31 1035 −18.3 +0.3 — −0.83
3
@#21Coppell (5-1) 2214
 4% (-31) L 7-68 848 −3.3 +22.7 — −0.20
4
Keller (6-0) 1806
 22% (-12) L 46-55 1620 +13.0 +8.2 — −0.66
5
@Justin Northwest (0-6) 1148
 68% (+7) W 29-24 1390 −3.8 +0.6 +0.06 —
7
@Fort Worth Boswell (3-3) 1350
 44% (-2) W 35-21 1878 +3.0 −12.2 +0.16 —
8
Keller Central (4-2) 1731
 28% (-9) — — — — — —
9
Northwest Eaton (2-4) 1535
 47% (-1) — — — — — —
10
@#14Southlake Carroll (4-2) 2362
 3% (-34) — — — — — —
11
Byron Nelson (3-3) 1653
 36% (-6) — — — — — —
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

District Standings Projection - District 4-6A

Rk Team (Enroll Rk) OVR/Elo Overall District PPG PAPG ProjRec PO% Bracket
1 14
Dragons
89.6
2362
 4-2 3-0 34.5 26.5 6.8-0.2 > 98% D2
2 66
Indians
81.2
1806
 6-0 3-0 51.5 34.3 5.4-1.6 > 98% D1
3 78
Chargers
80.1
1731
 4-2 1-2 36.2 24.3 3.9-3.1 79.4% D2
4 93
Bobcats
78.9
1653
 3-3 1-2 33.8 43.5 3.4-3.6 53.8% D1
5 114
Eagles
77.1
1535
 2-4 1-2 22.3 31.5 3.3-3.7 34.5% —
6 122
Falcons
76.8
1510
 3-3 2-1 24.0 37.3 3.1-3.9 29.7% —
7 154
Pioneers
74.3
1350
 3-3 1-2 37.7 29.8 1.7-5.3 3.2% —
8 184
Texans
71.3
1148
 0-6 0-3 22.2 34.2 0.4-6.6 < 2% —
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com
ProjRec, PO%, and Bracket represent the result of 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations from this point forward based on each team's current Elo

Since 2004

Historical Performance

Shaded band is the 6A league mean Elo ± 1 standard deviation for that season; the dashed gray line is the league mean. The four colored dashed lines mark the Elo needed that season to rank Top 10 / 25 / 50 / 100 among all qualifying 6A team-seasons (min. 8 games) — a rough gauge of how Keller Timber Creek’s season stacked up against the state’s best year over year.

Best TNG Rated Seasons

#1 · 2023
7-4
Rating 565 (67th)
#2 · 2021
3-7
Rating 538 (58th)
#3 · 2016
7-5
Rating 536 (57th)
#4 · 2024
5-5
Rating 536 (57th)
#5 · 2020
4-7
Rating 521 (52nd)

Team Performance History

Year Record Final
Elo		 PPG PAPG Margin Elo
SOS		 AOS ADS DOM Perf RQ WQ LQ All-Time
Rating (%ile)
2025 2-7 1414 18.3 32.7 −14.3 1713 −6.0 −0.9 −5.1 1373 −3.83 +0.33 −4.16 499(44th)
2024 5-5 1620 21.6 29.0 −7.4 1701 −3.1 −3.4 +0.3 1508 −1.13 +1.05 −2.18 536(57th)
2023 7-4 1633 31.6 29.9 +1.7 1603 +4.8 −2.9 +7.7 1692 −0.52 +1.06 −1.59 565(67th)
2022 4-7 1437 27.9 40.2 −12.3 1649 +1.2 +7.6 −6.5 1338 −3.05 +0.54 −3.59 492(41st)
2021 3-7 1489 30.8 40.0 −9.2 1817 +7.2 +3.1 +4.1 1603 −2.54 +0.32 −2.86 538(58th)
2020 4-7 1469 29.5 28.8 +0.6 1588 +3.2 −0.5 +3.8 1595 −3.77 +0.40 −4.17 521(52nd)
2019 3-7 1399 14.3 31.7 −17.4 1812 −5.8 −2.0 −3.7 1407 −2.95 +0.70 −3.65 505(46th)
2018 2-8 1266 22.4 32.9 −10.5 1750 +0.7 +1.2 −0.5 1488 −4.22 +0.67 −4.90 498(43rd)
2017 6-4 1350 24.5 18.2 +6.3 1362 −4.6 −6.3 +1.7 1542 −2.48 +0.52 −3.00 512(49th)
2016 7-5 1539 36.2 37.8 −1.5 1504 +7.6 +6.5 +1.0 1526 −1.43 +1.18 −2.61 536(57th)
2015 3-7 1316 30.3 33.9 −3.6 1596 +3.9 +4.8 −0.9 1477 −4.07 +0.65 −4.72 498(43rd)
2014 3-7 1214 24.9 36.3 −11.4 1587 −3.0 +4.2 −7.2 1320 −3.66 +0.17 −3.83 469(33rd)
2013 2-8 1220 16.3 38.5 −22.2 1592 −7.8 +8.6 −16.4 1091 −5.07 +0.15 −5.23 440(24th)
2012 4-6 1458 22.4 29.4 −7.0 1540 −2.2 +2.1 −4.3 1392 −3.27 +0.43 −3.70 502(45th)
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com
Margin — Average scoring margin (PPG minus PAPG).
Elo SOS — Average Elo of opponents faced that season, using each opponent's final season Elo.
AOS — Adjusted Offensive Scoring — scoring output compared to the expected average team's offensive performance, adjusted for opponents' defensive strength.
ADS — Adjusted Defensive Scoring — scoring allowed compared to the expected average defensive team's performance, adjusted for opponents' offensive strength; lower (more negative) is better.
DOM — Dominance — AOS minus ADS, combined scoring-margin efficiency.
Perf — Performance Elo — that season's DOM translated onto the Elo scale, an independent check on Elo itself.
RQ — Resume Quality — net wins above a second-round-quality opponent (WQ + LQ) for the season. Typically runs about −10 to +10: 0 is a break-even resume against that bar, the median qualifying season sits around −1, and +5 or better is an elite, deep-playoff-caliber resume.
WQ — Win Quality — resume credit earned from wins only, weighted by opponent strength. Each win's credit is benchmarked against a hypothetical ~1850 Elo opponent (roughly a second-round-playoff-quality team) — beating a team stronger than that earns close to full credit, beating a much weaker team earns very little.
LQ — Loss Quality — resume cost from losses only, weighted by opponent strength.
All-Time Rating — 0–990 composite score ranked against every qualifying 6A team-season since 2004; parenthetical is the all-time percentile.