Playoff Projections · Week 8

Current playoff bracket projections as of today, based on a Monte Carlo simulation run 10,000 times on the remaining regular season games to set the field, and then another set of simulations run on the projected playoff field to determine the most likely winners in each round.

Jump toAdvancement odds·OFF vs. DEF·Reading the bracket

Division I Division II

Region IRegion IIRegion IIIRegion IVSemis & State

ProjectedActual

Bi-District

W1El Paso Pebble Hills (6-1) 1710

R2Midland Lee (4-3) 1669

Pick El Paso Pebble Hills 54% (+2)

W3Arlington Martin (6-0) 1961

R4Byron Nelson (3-3) 1653

Pick Arlington Martin 78% (+12)

W5Lewisville (3-3) 2457

R6Prosper (5-1) 2389

Pick Lewisville 57% (+3)

W7Coppell (5-1) 2214

R8South Grand Prairie (4-2) 1730

Pick Coppell 88% (+19)

W2Odessa Permian (7-0) 2062

R1El Paso Eastlake (4-2) 1323

Pick Odessa Permian 96% (+30)

W4Keller (6-0) 1806

R3Arlington (4-2) 1558

Pick Keller 74% (+10)

W6Allen (6-0) 2857

R5Lewisville Hebron (4-2) 1854

Pick Allen > 98% (+40)

W8Euless Trinity (4-2) 1869

R7Plano East (4-2) 1678

Pick Euless Trinity 69% (+8)

Area · Projected

Pebble Hills vs Arl. Martin43%

Midland Lee vs Arl. Martin36%

Lewisville vs Coppell50%

Prosper vs Coppell38%

Permian vs Keller71%

Permian vs Arlington25%

Allen vs Trinity68%

Allen vs Plano East31%

Reg. Semifinal · Projected

Arl. Martin vs Lewisville26%

Arl. Martin vs Prosper18%

Permian vs Allen73%

Keller vs Allen20%

Reg. Final · Projected

Lewisville vs Allen38%

Prosper vs Allen26%

Advancement Odds

	Team	District	OVR / Elo	Bi-Dist	Area	Reg Semi	Reg Final	Semi	Champ
	Allen Eagles	6-6A	97.1 2857	> 98%	97.2%	94.4%	83.9%	66.4%	44.6%
	Lewisville Fighting Farmers	5-6A	91 2457	57%	43.4%	39.8%	7.9%	3.4%	< 2%
	Prosper Eagles	6-6A	90 2389	43%	30.4%	27.2%	4.4%	< 2%	< 2%
	Coppell Cowboys	7-6A	87.4 2214	88.3%	25.7%	20.7%	2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Arlington Martin Warriors	3-6A	83.6 1961	78.4%	59.2%	9.6%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Odessa Permian Panthers	2-6A	85.1 2062	95.7%	75%	4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Keller Indians	4-6A	81.2 1806	73.8%	20.8%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	El Paso Pebble Hills Spartans	1-6A	79.8 1710	54.3%	17.6%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Midland Lee Rebels	2-6A	79.2 1669	45.7%	13.2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Byron Nelson Bobcats	4-6A	78.9 1653	21.6%	9.9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Arlington Colts	3-6A	77.5 1558	26.2%	3.5%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Euless Trinity Trojans	8-6A	82.2 1869	69%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Plano East Panthers	7-6A	79.3 1678	31%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	South Grand Prairie Warriors	8-6A	80.1 1730	11.7%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	El Paso Eastlake Falcons	1-6A	73.9 1323	4.3%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Lewisville Hebron Hawks	5-6A	81.9 1854	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%

OFF vs. DEF

Bi-District

W9Garland Sachse (6-0) 1785

R10Rockwall-Heath (4-2) 1987

Pick Rockwall-Heath 70% (+8)

W11Waxahachie (5-1) 2612

R12Copperas Cove (5-2) 1566

Pick Waxahachie > 98% (+42)

W13The Woodlands (5-1) 2314

R14Aldine Nimitz (3-3) 1518

Pick The Woodlands 97% (+32)

W15Klein (7-0) 2118

R16Cy-Fair (4-2) 1782

Pick Klein 80% (+13)

W10Rockwall (4-2) 2040

R9Wylie (4-2) 1571

Pick Rockwall 88% (+19)

W12Waco Midway (6-1) 2038

R11Duncanville (3-3) 2485

Pick Duncanville 87% (+18)

W14Aldine Davis (5-1) 1655

R13Conroe Grand Oaks (4-2) 1841

Pick Conroe Grand Oaks 69% (+7)

W16Cy Woods (4-1) 1704

R15Klein Collins (5-2) 1934

Pick Klein Collins 72% (+9)

Area · Projected

Heath vs Waxahachie69%

Sachse vs Waxahachie30%

Woodlands vs Klein78%

Woodlands vs Cy-Fair19%

Rockwall vs Duncanville76%

Rockwall vs Midway12%

Grand Oaks vs K. Collins50%

Aldine Davis vs K. Collins23%

Reg. Semifinal · Projected

Waxahachie vs Woodlands66%

Waxahachie vs Klein24%

Duncanville vs K. Collins36%

Duncanville vs Grand Oaks25%

Reg. Final · Projected

Waxahachie vs Duncanville54%

Woodlands vs Duncanville13%

Advancement Odds

	Team	District	OVR / Elo	Bi-Dist	Area	Reg Semi	Reg Final	Semi	Champ
	Waxahachie Indians	11-6A	93.4 2612	> 98%	93.1%	75.6%	54.2%	18.4%	8.4%
	Duncanville Panthers	11-6A	91.5 2485	86.7%	76.2%	70.9%	32.2%	7.9%	2.8%
	The Woodlands Highlanders	13-6A	88.9 2314	96.6%	71%	18.7%	8.7%	< 2%	< 2%
	Rockwall Yellowjackets	10-6A	84.8 2040	87.7%	16.1%	11%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Klein Collins Tigers	15-6A	83.2 1934	72.4%	46.9%	7.7%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Waco Midway Panthers	12-6A	84.7 2038	13.3%	7.2%	4.9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Klein Bearkats	15-6A	85.9 2118	80.3%	26.3%	4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Conroe Grand Oaks Grizzlies	13-6A	81.8 1841	68.6%	32.2%	3.9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Cy Woods Wildcats	16-6A	79.7 1704	27.6%	11.6%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Aldine Davis Falcons	14-6A	78.9 1655	31.4%	9.3%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Rockwall-Heath Hawks	10-6A	84 1987	70%	5.5%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Cy-Fair Bobcats	16-6A	80.9 1782	19.7%	2.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Garland Sachse Mustangs	9-6A	80.9 1785	30%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Wylie Pirates	9-6A	77.7 1571	12.3%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Aldine Nimitz Cougars	14-6A	76.9 1518	3.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Copperas Cove Bulldawgs	12-6A	77.6 1566	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%

OFF vs. DEF

Bi-District

W17Galena Park North Shore (7-0) 2816

R18Deer Park (6-0) 2095

Pick Galena Park North Shore 95% (+29)

W19Pearland (7-0) 2385

R20Alief Taylor (6-1) 1457

Pick Pearland 98% (+37)

W21Fort Bend Travis (6-1) 1770

R22Katy Jordan (4-2) 1745

Pick Fort Bend Travis 53% (+1)

W23Bridgeland (5-1) 2199

R24Leander Rouse (4-3) 1600

Pick Bridgeland 92% (+24)

W18Dickinson (3-3) 2210

R17Humble Summer Creek (4-3) 2373

Pick Humble Summer Creek 66% (+7)

W20Houston Lamar (4-2) 1731

R19Pearland Dawson (3-4) 1551

Pick Houston Lamar 68% (+7)

W22Katy (7-0) 2587

R21Strake Jesuit (2-5) 1493

Pick Katy > 98% (+44)

W24Hutto (5-2) 1894

R23Cy Ranch (5-1) 2165

Pick Cy Ranch 76% (+11)

Area · Projected

North Shore vs Pearland93%

Deer Park vs Pearland5%

FB Travis vs Bridgeland49%

Jordan vs Bridgeland44%

Summer Creek vs Hou. Lamar45%

Dickinson vs Hou. Lamar23%

Katy vs Cy Ranch75%

Katy vs Hutto24%

Reg. Semifinal · Projected

North Shore vs Bridgeland66%

Pearland vs Bridgeland13%

Summer Creek vs Katy55%

Dickinson vs Katy26%

Reg. Final · Projected

North Shore vs Katy51%

North Shore vs Summer Creek17%

Advancement Odds

	Team	District	OVR / Elo	Bi-Dist	Area	Reg Semi	Reg Final	Semi	Champ
	Galena Park North Shore Mustangs	17-6A	96.5 2816	95.3%	82.2%	77.4%	60.3%	56%	31.3%
	Katy Tigers	22-6A	93 2587	> 98%	86.8%	66.4%	25.7%	21.5%	7.5%
	Humble Summer Creek Bulldogs	17-6A	89.8 2373	66.4%	62.9%	21.8%	5.1%	3.5%	< 2%
	Pearland Oilers	19-6A	90 2385	98%	16.7%	12.3%	4.8%	3.4%	< 2%
	Bridgeland Bears	23-6A	87.2 2199	92.5%	79.8%	9.4%	2.3%	< 2%	< 2%
	Dickinson Gators	18-6A	87.3 2210	33.6%	30.2%	6.8%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Cy Ranch Mustangs	23-6A	86.6 2165	75.6%	11.6%	4.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Fort Bend Travis Tigers	21-6A	80.7 1770	52.7%	9.6%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Katy Jordan Warriors	22-6A	80.3 1745	47.3%	8%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Houston Lamar Texans	20-6A	80.1 1731	68.1%	5.6%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Leander Rouse Raiders	24-6A	78.1 1600	7.5%	2.6%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Pearland Dawson Eagles	19-6A	77.4 1551	31.9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Hutto Hippos	24-6A	82.5 1894	24.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Deer Park Deer	18-6A	85.6 2095	4.7%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Alief Taylor Lions	20-6A	76 1457	2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Strake Jesuit Crusaders	21-6A	76.5 1493	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%

OFF vs. DEF

Bi-District

W25Round Rock (4-2) 2019

R26Buda Johnson (2-5) 1279

Pick Round Rock 96% (+30)

W27Cibolo Steele (4-1-1) 2221

R28San Antonio Reagan (3-2-1) 1744

Pick Cibolo Steele 88% (+19)

W29San Antonio Brennan (5-1) 2028

R30Laredo Johnson (4-2) 1205

Pick San Antonio Brennan 97% (+33)

W31Weslaco (3-3) 1417

R32Los Fresnos (3-3) 1360

Pick Weslaco 56% (+2)

W26Austin Bowie (5-1) 1816

R25Lake Travis (2-2-1) 2062

Pick Lake Travis 74% (+10)

W28San Antonio Johnson (5-0) 2290

R27San Antonio East Central (5-1) 1731

Pick San Antonio Johnson 91% (+22)

W30Laredo United (3-2-1) 1549

R29San Antonio Harlan (5-1) 1927

Pick San Antonio Harlan 83% (+15)

W32San Benito (4-2) 1282

R31Edinburg Economedes (2-4) 1062

Pick San Benito 71% (+9)

Area · Projected

Round Rock vs Steele84%

Round Rock vs SA Reagan11%

SA Brennan vs Weslaco54%

SA Brennan vs Los Fresnos43%

Lake Travis vs SA Johnson67%

Austin Bowie vs SA Johnson24%

SA Harlan vs San Benito59%

SA Harlan vs Economedes24%

Reg. Semifinal · Projected

Steele vs SA Brennan57%

Round Rock vs SA Brennan31%

SA Johnson vs SA Harlan55%

Lake Travis vs SA Harlan19%

Reg. Final · Projected

Steele vs SA Johnson27%

SA Brennan vs SA Johnson21%

Advancement Odds

	Team	District	OVR / Elo	Bi-Dist	Area	Reg Semi	Reg Final	Semi	Champ
	San Antonio Johnson Jaguars	28-6A	88.5 2290	91.2%	69.7%	59.4%	40%	7.3%	< 2%
	Cibolo Steele Knights	27-6A	87.5 2221	88.1%	62.7%	45%	24.9%	3.7%	< 2%
	San Antonio Brennan Bears	29-6A	84.6 2028	96.9%	90.6%	35.6%	13.4%	< 2%	< 2%
	Lake Travis Cavaliers	25-6A	85.1 2062	73.7%	23.8%	16.6%	7.5%	< 2%	< 2%
	Round Rock Dragons	25-6A	84.4 2019	95.7%	34%	18.1%	6.7%	< 2%	< 2%
	San Antonio Harlan Hawks	29-6A	83 1927	82.9%	78.6%	19.9%	6.5%	< 2%	< 2%
	Austin Bowie Bulldogs	26-6A	81.4 1816	26.3%	4.3%	2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Laredo United Longhorns	30-6A	77.3 1549	17.1%	13.5%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	San Benito Greyhounds	32-6A	73.3 1282	71.5%	6.7%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Weslaco Panthers	31-6A	75.3 1417	55.9%	5.1%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Los Fresnos Falcons	32-6A	74.5 1360	44.1%	3.3%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	San Antonio Reagan Rattlers	28-6A	80.3 1744	11.9%	3.2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	San Antonio East Central Hornets	27-6A	80.1 1731	8.8%	2.2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Edinburg Economedes Jaguars	31-6A	70 1062	28.5%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Buda Johnson Jaguars	26-6A	73.3 1279	4.3%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Laredo Johnson Wolves	30-6A	72.2 1205	3.1%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%

OFF vs. DEF

Path to State

State Semifinal · Projected

Allen vs Waxahachie45%

Allen vs Duncanville27%

North Shore vs SA Johnson24%

North Shore vs Steele15%

State Championship · Projected

Allen vs North Shore37%

Allen vs Katy14%

Advancement Odds — Top 10

	Team	District	OVR / Elo	Bi-Dist	Area	Reg Semi	Reg Final	Semi	Champ
	Allen Eagles	6-6A	97.1 2857	> 98%	97.2%	94.4%	83.9%	66.4%	44.6%
	Galena Park North Shore Mustangs	17-6A	96.5 2816	95.3%	82.2%	77.4%	60.3%	56%	31.3%
	Waxahachie Indians	11-6A	93.4 2612	> 98%	93.1%	75.6%	54.2%	18.4%	8.4%
	Katy Tigers	22-6A	93 2587	> 98%	86.8%	66.4%	25.7%	21.5%	7.5%
	Duncanville Panthers	11-6A	91.5 2485	86.7%	76.2%	70.9%	32.2%	7.9%	2.8%
	San Antonio Johnson Jaguars	28-6A	88.5 2290	91.2%	69.7%	59.4%	40%	7.3%	< 2%
	San Antonio Brennan Bears	29-6A	84.6 2028	96.9%	90.6%	35.6%	13.4%	< 2%	< 2%
	Cibolo Steele Knights	27-6A	87.5 2221	88.1%	62.7%	45%	24.9%	3.7%	< 2%
	The Woodlands Highlanders	13-6A	88.9 2314	96.6%	71%	18.7%	8.7%	< 2%	< 2%
	San Antonio Harlan Hawks	29-6A	83 1927	82.9%	78.6%	19.9%	6.5%	< 2%	< 2%

OFF vs. DEF

The actual bracket appears here once seeding is set after Week 11.

Region IRegion IIRegion IIIRegion IVSemis & State

ProjectedActual

Bi-District

W1El Paso Eastwood (5-2) 1614

R2San Angelo Central (4-2) 1566

Pick El Paso Eastwood 55% (+2)

W3Aledo (3-3) 1975

R4Keller Central (4-2) 1731

Pick Aledo 73% (+10)

W5Denton Guyer (4-2) 2248

R6Prosper Walnut Grove (5-1) 2078

Pick Denton Guyer 67% (+7)

W7Richardson Lake Highlands (4-2) 1695

R8Hurst Bell (3-3) 1286

Pick Richardson Lake Highlands 85% (+16)

W2Midland (4-3) 1670

R1El Paso Franklin (3-3) 1129

Pick Midland 91% (+22)

W4Southlake Carroll (4-2) 2362

R3Arlington Bowie (3-3) 1586

Pick Southlake Carroll 96% (+31)

W6Dallas Jesuit (4-2) 1660

R5Denton Braswell (5-1) 1736

Pick Denton Braswell 58% (+3)

W8Fort Worth Haltom (3-3) 1404

R7Richardson Berkner (2-4) 1624

Pick Richardson Berkner 71% (+9)

Area · Projected

Eastwood vs Aledo40%

S. Angelo Cen vs Aledo33%

Guyer vs Lk Highlands57%

Walnut Grove vs Lk Highlands28%

Midland vs SL Carroll87%

Franklin vs SL Carroll9%

Braswell vs Berkner41%

Dal. Jesuit vs Berkner30%

Reg. Semifinal · Projected

Aledo vs Guyer38%

Aledo vs Walnut Grove17%

SL Carroll vs Braswell35%

SL Carroll vs Berkner27%

Reg. Final · Projected

Guyer vs SL Carroll44%

Aledo vs SL Carroll18%

Advancement Odds

	Team	District	OVR / Elo	Bi-Dist	Area	Reg Semi	Reg Final	Semi	Champ
	Southlake Carroll Dragons	4-6A	89.6 2362	96.3%	91.7%	86.8%	62.6%	10%	4.4%
	Denton Guyer Wildcats	5-6A	87.9 2248	67.1%	61.8%	50.7%	23%	2.6%	< 2%
	Prosper Walnut Grove Wildcats	6-6A	85.3 2078	32.9%	28.1%	19.7%	6.2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Aledo Bearcats	3-6A	83.8 1975	73.5%	61.1%	20.6%	5.1%	< 2%	< 2%
	Denton Braswell Bengals	5-6A	80.2 1736	57.8%	38.6%	4.3%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Richardson Lake Highlands Wildcats	7-6A	79.6 1695	84.7%	9.8%	3.5%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Midland Bulldogs	2-6A	79.2 1670	90.6%	6.5%	3.3%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Keller Central Chargers	4-6A	80.1 1731	26.5%	17%	2.9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Richardson Berkner Rams	7-6A	78.5 1624	71.5%	29.9%	2.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Dallas Jesuit Rangers	6-6A	79 1660	42.2%	25.2%	2.2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	El Paso Eastwood Troopers	1-6A	78.3 1614	55%	12.9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	San Angelo Central Bobcats	2-6A	77.6 1566	45%	9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Fort Worth Haltom Buffaloes	8-6A	75.2 1404	28.5%	6.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Hurst Bell Blue Raiders	8-6A	73.4 1286	15.3%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	El Paso Franklin Cougars	1-6A	71 1129	9.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Arlington Bowie Volunteers	3-6A	77.9 1586	3.7%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%

OFF vs. DEF

Bi-District

W9Wylie East (4-2) 1720

R10North Forney (1-4) 2041

Pick North Forney 79% (+13)

W11North Crowley (6-0) 2885

R12Lake Belton (3-3) 1596

Pick North Crowley > 98% (+52)

W13The Woodlands College Park (3-3) 2049

R14Spring Dekaney (3-3) 1327

Pick The Woodlands College Park 95% (+29)

W15Tomball (5-1) 2056

R16Cy Falls (5-1) 1967

Pick Tomball 59% (+4)

W10Longview (5-1) 2462

R9Garland Rowlett (3-3) 1384

Pick Longview > 98% (+43)

W12Killeen Harker Heights (4-2) 1909

R11Mansfield Lake Ridge (4-2) 1880

Pick Killeen Harker Heights 53% (+1)

W14Spring Westfield (4-2) 1956

R13Willis (4-2) 2033

Pick Willis 58% (+3)

W16Langham Creek (5-1) 1754

R15Magnolia (3-4) 1857

Pick Magnolia 61% (+4)

Area · Projected

North Forney vs N. Crowley79%

Wylie East vs N. Crowley21%

College Park vs Tomball56%

College Park vs Cy Falls39%

Longview vs Harker Hts52%

Longview vs Lake Ridge46%

Willis vs Magnolia35%

Westfield vs Magnolia25%

Reg. Semifinal · Projected

N. Crowley vs College Park49%

N. Crowley vs Tomball30%

Longview vs Willis37%

Longview vs Westfield24%

Reg. Final · Projected

N. Crowley vs Longview76%

N. Crowley vs Willis7%

Advancement Odds

	Team	District	OVR / Elo	Bi-Dist	Area	Reg Semi	Reg Final	Semi	Champ
	North Crowley Panthers	11-6A	97.5 2885	> 98%	97.2%	94.4%	83%	76.2%	65.6%
	Longview Lobos	10-6A	91.1 2462	> 98%	90.4%	80.6%	14.9%	9.9%	5.3%
	Willis Wildkats	13-6A	84.6 2033	58%	41.2%	7.8%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Spring Westfield Mustangs	14-6A	83.5 1956	42%	26.9%	4.1%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Magnolia Bulldogs	15-6A	82 1857	60.6%	21.5%	2.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Killeen Harker Heights Knights	12-6A	82.8 1909	53%	5.2%	2.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	The Woodlands College Park Cavaliers	13-6A	84.9 2049	95.4%	50.6%	2.2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Tomball Cougars	15-6A	85 2056	59.2%	31.3%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Cy Falls Golden Eagles	16-6A	83.7 1967	40.8%	17.9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Langham Creek Lobos	16-6A	80.4 1754	39.4%	10.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Mansfield Lake Ridge Eagles	11-6A	82.3 1880	47%	4.2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	North Forney Falcons	10-6A	84.8 2041	79.3%	2.5%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Wylie East Raiders	9-6A	79.9 1720	20.7%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Spring Dekaney Wildcats	14-6A	74 1327	4.6%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Lake Belton Broncos	12-6A	78.1 1596	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Garland Rowlett Eagles	9-6A	74.8 1384	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%

OFF vs. DEF

Bi-District

W17Sheldon CE King (6-1) 2580

R18Clear Falls (3-3) 1637

Pick Sheldon CE King > 98% (+38)

W19Alvin Shadow Creek (5-1) 2203

R20Houston Stratford (2-4) 1345

Pick Alvin Shadow Creek 97% (+34)

W21Fort Bend Ridge Point (7-0) 2445

R22Katy Taylor (5-2) 1540

Pick Fort Bend Ridge Point 98% (+36)

W23Fulshear (5-1) 1966

R24Austin Vandegrift (4-2) 2056

Pick Austin Vandegrift 59% (+4)

W18Barbers Hill (6-0) 2004

R17Humble Atascocita (4-3) 2319

Pick Humble Atascocita 79% (+13)

W20Houston Memorial (6-0) 1946

R19Manvel (5-1) 2101

Pick Manvel 66% (+6)

W22Katy Tompkins (3-3) 1870

R21Fort Bend Hightower (5-2) 1828

Pick Katy Tompkins 54% (+2)

W24Cedar Park (7-0) 2096

R23Waller (5-1) 1950

Pick Cedar Park 65% (+6)

Area · Projected

CE King vs Shadow Creek95%

CE King vs Stratford3%

FB Ridge Pt. vs Vandegrift58%

FB Ridge Pt. vs Fulshear40%

Atascocita vs Manvel52%

Atascocita vs Hou Memorial27%

Tompkins vs Cedar Park35%

FB Hightower vs Cedar Park30%

Reg. Semifinal · Projected

CE King vs FB Ridge Pt.68%

Shadow Creek vs FB Ridge Pt.15%

Atascocita vs Cedar Park28%

Atascocita vs Waller13%

Reg. Final · Projected

CE King vs Atascocita26%

FB Ridge Pt. vs Atascocita17%

Advancement Odds

	Team	District	OVR / Elo	Bi-Dist	Area	Reg Semi	Reg Final	Semi	Champ
	Sheldon CE King Panthers	17-6A	92.9 2580	> 98%	81.8%	55.8%	46.3%	36.4%	12%
	Fort Bend Ridge Point Panthers	21-6A	90.9 2445	97.8%	83.6%	36%	26.7%	18.2%	4.4%
	Humble Atascocita Eagles	17-6A	89 2319	78.9%	59.4%	46.9%	15.4%	8.7%	< 2%
	Alvin Shadow Creek Sharks	19-6A	87.2 2203	97.3%	18%	6%	3.2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Cedar Park Timberwolves	24-6A	85.6 2096	64.8%	47.6%	18.6%	3.1%	< 2%	< 2%
	Manvel Mavericks	19-6A	85.7 2101	65.6%	23.1%	14.1%	2.4%	< 2%	< 2%
	Waller Bulldogs	23-6A	83.4 1950	35.2%	21.2%	5.6%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Barbers Hill Eagles	18-6A	84.2 2004	21.1%	9.6%	4.9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Katy Tompkins Falcons	22-6A	82.2 1870	54.4%	17.9%	3.8%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Houston Memorial Mustangs	20-6A	83.3 1946	34.4%	7.9%	3.6%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Fort Bend Hightower Hurricanes	21-6A	81.6 1828	45.6%	13.3%	2.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Austin Vandegrift Vipers	24-6A	85 2056	59.3%	10.7%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Fulshear Chargers	23-6A	83.6 1966	40.7%	5.5%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Houston Stratford Spartans	20-6A	74.3 1345	2.7%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Katy Taylor Mustangs	22-6A	77.2 1540	2.2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Clear Falls Knights	18-6A	78.7 1637	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%

OFF vs. DEF

Bi-District

W25Austin Westlake (5-1) 2332

R26Buda Hays Consolidated (4-3) 1432

Pick Austin Westlake 98% (+36)

W27San Antonio Pieper (3-3) 1642

R28San Antonio Brandeis (3-3) 1461

Pick San Antonio Pieper 68% (+7)

W29San Antonio Sotomayor (5-2) 1586

R30Eagle Pass (2-4) 1033

Pick San Antonio Sotomayor 91% (+22)

W31Edinburg Vela (5-1) 1690

R32Harlingen (4-2) 1428

Pick Edinburg Vela 75% (+10)

W26Dripping Springs (5-1) 2153

R25Round Rock Cedar Ridge (7-0) 1852

Pick Dripping Springs 78% (+12)

W28San Antonio Roosevelt (3-3) 1374

R27Converse Judson (2-3) 1513

Pick Converse Judson 64% (+6)

W30Laredo Alexander (4-2) 1319

R29San Antonio Warren (4-3) 1317

Pick Laredo Alexander 50% (+0)

W32PSJA North (5-1) 1798

R31La Joya (3-3) 963

Pick PSJA North 97% (+33)

Area · Projected

Westlake vs SA Pieper67%

Westlake vs SA Brandeis31%

SA Sotomayor vs Vela68%

SA Sotomayor vs Harlingen23%

Drip vs Judson50%

Drip vs SA Roosevelt28%

L. Alexander vs PSJA North49%

SA Warren vs PSJA North48%

Reg. Semifinal · Projected

Westlake vs Vela45%

Westlake vs SA Sotomayor39%

Drip vs PSJA North63%

Cedar Ridge vs PSJA North16%

Reg. Final · Projected

Westlake vs Drip55%

Westlake vs PSJA North21%

Advancement Odds

	Team	District	OVR / Elo	Bi-Dist	Area	Reg Semi	Reg Final	Semi	Champ
	Austin Westlake Chaparrals	25-6A	89.2 2332	97.7%	93.4%	88.7%	67.9%	26.2%	4.6%
	Dripping Springs Tigers	26-6A	86.5 2153	77.9%	73.6%	61.7%	23.8%	5.8%	< 2%
	PSJA North Raiders	32-6A	81.1 1798	97.1%	85.6%	24%	3.9%	< 2%	< 2%
	Round Rock Cedar Ridge Raiders	25-6A	81.9 1852	22.1%	18.4%	11.2%	2.1%	< 2%	< 2%
	Edinburg Vela Sabercats	31-6A	79.5 1690	75%	47.7%	4.7%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	San Antonio Sotomayor Wildcats	29-6A	77.9 1586	91%	41.8%	3%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	San Antonio Pieper Warriors	27-6A	78.7 1642	68.1%	4.6%	2.4%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Harlingen Cardinals	32-6A	75.5 1428	25%	9.7%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Laredo Alexander Bulldogs	30-6A	73.9 1319	50.2%	7%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	San Antonio Warren Warriors	29-6A	73.8 1317	49.8%	6.9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Converse Judson Rockets	27-6A	76.8 1513	64.2%	6%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	San Antonio Roosevelt Rough Riders	28-6A	74.7 1374	35.8%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	San Antonio Brandeis Broncos	28-6A	76 1461	31.9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Eagle Pass Eagles	30-6A	69.6 1033	9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	La Joya Coyotes	31-6A	68.5 963	2.9%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%
	Buda Hays Consolidated Hawks	26-6A	75.6 1432	2.3%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%	< 2%

OFF vs. DEF

Path to State

State Semifinal · Projected

SL Carroll vs N. Crowley52%

Guyer vs N. Crowley19%

CE King vs Westlake31%

FB Ridge Pt. vs Westlake18%

State Championship · Projected

N. Crowley vs CE King28%

N. Crowley vs Westlake20%

Advancement Odds — Top 10

	Team	District	OVR / Elo	Bi-Dist	Area	Reg Semi	Reg Final	Semi	Champ
	North Crowley Panthers	11-6A	97.5 2885	> 98%	97.2%	94.4%	83%	76.2%	65.6%
	Austin Westlake Chaparrals	25-6A	89.2 2332	97.7%	93.4%	88.7%	67.9%	26.2%	4.6%
	Southlake Carroll Dragons	4-6A	89.6 2362	96.3%	91.7%	86.8%	62.6%	10%	4.4%
	Sheldon CE King Panthers	17-6A	92.9 2580	> 98%	81.8%	55.8%	46.3%	36.4%	12%
	Longview Lobos	10-6A	91.1 2462	> 98%	90.4%	80.6%	14.9%	9.9%	5.3%
	Fort Bend Ridge Point Panthers	21-6A	90.9 2445	97.8%	83.6%	36%	26.7%	18.2%	4.4%
	Dripping Springs Tigers	26-6A	86.5 2153	77.9%	73.6%	61.7%	23.8%	5.8%	< 2%
	PSJA North Raiders	32-6A	81.1 1798	97.1%	85.6%	24%	3.9%	< 2%	< 2%
	Humble Atascocita Eagles	17-6A	89 2319	78.9%	59.4%	46.9%	15.4%	8.7%	< 2%
	Denton Guyer Wildcats	5-6A	87.9 2248	67.1%	61.8%	50.7%	23%	2.6%	< 2%

OFF vs. DEF

The actual bracket appears here once seeding is set after Week 11.

Reading the bracket

Toughest brackets

All eight regional brackets across both divisions, ranked by the average rating of their 16 projected qualifiers. Division I · Region III is the toughest road right now.

• 1Division I · Region III2004
• 2Division II · Region III1993
• 3Division I · Region II1934
• 4Division II · Region II1930
• 5Division I · Region I1924
• 6Division II · Region I1710
• 7Division I · Region IV1687
• 8Division II · Region IV1556
• Division I average1888
• Division II average1797

Division still in play

Likely qualifiers who could still land in either division. The split goes by enrollment among each district’s four qualifiers, so it can turn on who else gets in — not just on these teams’ own results. Odds to land in each bracket; any gap below 100% is the chance of missing the playoffs.

• Klein CollinsDistrict 15DI 47%·DII 50%
• Dripping SpringsDistrict 26DI 41%·DII 59%
• HarlingenDistrict 32DI 55%·DII 31%
• KatyDistrict 22DI 73%·DII 27%
• Copperas CoveDistrict 12DI 79%·DII 21%
• El Paso FranklinDistrict 1DI 12%·DII 57%

Toughest draw

Contenders’ roads to State: each Bi-District favorite’s most likely opponent in every round through the State Championship, ranked by those opponents’ average rating.

• Division I
• Rockwall-HeathRegion IISachse › Waxahachie › Woodlands › Duncanville › Allen › North Shore2478
• KleinRegion IICy-Fair › Woodlands › Waxahachie › Duncanville › Allen › North Shore2478
• LewisvilleRegion IProsper › Coppell › Arl. Martin › Allen › Waxahachie › North Shore2475
• Cy RanchRegion IIIHutto › Katy › Summer Creek › North Shore › SA Johnson › Allen2470
• Fort Bend TravisRegion IIIJordan › Bridgeland › North Shore › Katy › SA Johnson › Allen2416
• Division II
• Austin VandegriftRegion IIIFulshear › FB Ridge Pt. › CE King › Atascocita › Westlake › N. Crowley2421
• TomballRegion IICy Falls › College Park › N. Crowley › Longview › SL Carroll › CE King2384
• Killeen Harker HeightsRegion IILake Ridge › Longview › Willis › N. Crowley › SL Carroll › CE King2367
• ManvelRegion IIIHou Memorial › Atascocita › Cedar Park › CE King › Westlake › N. Crowley2360
• WillisRegion IIWestfield › Magnolia › Longview › N. Crowley › SL Carroll › CE King2350